


Performative Utterance

by Idle_Hans



Series: Pocket Universities [7]
Category: Harry Potter - J. K. Rowling
Genre: Gen
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2020-06-23
Updated: 2020-06-23
Packaged: 2021-03-04 04:47:56
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 876
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/24867826
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/Idle_Hans/pseuds/Idle_Hans
Summary: A discourse on the nature of prophecies.
Series: Pocket Universities [7]
Series URL: https://archiveofourown.org/series/1798099
Comments: 3
Kudos: 20





	Performative Utterance

"Really, Harry! How many books on Divination have you read that aren't on Professor Trelawney's recommended list?"

"Umm .... maybe one?"

"So you probably don't know that there's been an argument going on since the eighteenth century over what exactly prophecies are?"

Harry knew better than to be surprised that Hermione knew more than he did about a subject she'd quit within the first year. Harry, Ron, Parvati, and Lavender had all continued on with Divination, and so between her friends, her dorm-mates, her constant reading, and her determination to learn everything she could during her years at Hogwarts, it was inevitable that Hermione would still be well versed in what Trelawney was teaching.

"They're .... _not_ a glimpse into the future?"

"Well, that's the traditional explanation, and if you sort all the relevant library books by their accession dates, that's clearly not only what Professor Trelawney teaches, but also what the teachers were saying when Tom Riddle and Professor Dumbledore were students as well. Which I'd say is why those two find it so easy to take as gospel truth something conveniently trotted out by an unemployed alcoholic of no fixed address during a last-ditch, make-or-break job interview."

Harry took a moment to absorb and then set aside for later the implications of Hermione's take on Sybill Trelawney's possible motives for uttering his parents' death warrant.

"So what's the competing explanation?"

"The leading explanation is the one favoured by the Department of Mysteries, and it's based on the fact that the ministry can track and record prophecies in the same way it can track and record accidental magic; something that can't be done at a distance for mind magic, time magic, or any other competing method of divination such as arithmancy, scrying, or farseeing. If a prophecy is one person getting a glimpse into the future, why is it a measurably different kind of magic to anything else even remotely similar? Also, there's the statistical analysis: the Department of Mysteries has got thousands of them to work with; and when you look at prophecies uttered in circumstances such that no-one with a stake in the outcome could have heard about it, the success rate of the prediction is proportional to the magical power of the prophet and their proximity to the subject when the prophecy was uttered, _just like any other charm, spell, or curse_."

Harry went cold all over.

"A prophecy is a _curse!?_ "

"No. A prophecy is an example of uncrafted wandless magic. For example, if I went up to Professor Snape and screamed, _'You shall die without ever again bedding a virgin!'_ , while putting my magic into it, my magic would attempt to make that happen."

"Your magic wouldn't have to work too hard," laughed Ron, and Hermione was grateful to him that he'd picked up on her attempt to lighten the mood.

"Which is a good thing, because uncrafted utterances have this in common with accidental magic: it's a very inefficient way of doing things. That's why we invented spellcrafting and wands."

Unfortunately for Harry's mood, his mind was busy joining dots.

"So when Trelawney prophesied that Wormtail would break free that night and set out to rejoin his master, and that Voldemort would rise again, greater and more terrible than before, her magic started working to those ends? Is that why Remus and Snape both forgot about the wolfsbane potion?" 

"Maybe, but we don't know how powerful Professor Trelawney is. Have either of you ever seen her perform any significant magic?"

Both boys shook their heads.

"And you have to make this allowance for her as well. Only seers who are clearly insane make prophecies that cannot possibly come to pass. The Performative Utterance model of the nature of prophecies — that's what I've been talking about — holds that, even though a prophecy _isn't_ based on knowledge of future events, it usually _is_ based on a natural, non-arithmantic calculation of what's possible or probable given present circumstances, even if only the seer's magic is aware of all of the information. Professor Trelawney didn't mean to interfere, not consciously."

"But still, her magic gave those circumstances a push in a certain direction."

" _If_ her magic is strong enough to have that effect. Most registered prophecies never come to pass, you know. The prophecy she uttered before you were born, the one that got her a job at Hogwarts, that one blighted your life not so much because she said it, but because Professor Dumbledore and Voldemort both heard it, believed it, and decided to act upon it. On its own terms, all it did was recognise Voldemort as a long term threat who couldn't be done away with quickly; it drove him to focus his efforts on magically powerful families who were already actively fighting him; and on Dumbledore's part it encouraged the Headmaster to indulge his usual hands-off laziness and just let things happen. Who knows, maybe Professor Trelawney secretly thinks that's the best you can possibly hope for from the man."

Harry and Ron stared at Hermione.

"Blimey! When did you stop worshipping at Dumbledore's altar?"

"The moment I found out he's gambling the future of magical Europe on a theory of Divination that's been thoroughly discredited for two-hundred and fifty years."


End file.
